The R Journal: article published in 2011, volume 3:1

Probabilistic Weather Forecasting in R PDF download
Chris Fraley, Adrian Raftery, Tilmann Gneiting, McLean Sloughter and Veronica Berrocal , The R Journal (2011) 3:1, pages 55-63.

Abstract This article describes two R packages for probabilistic weather forecasting, ensembleBMA, which offers ensemble postprocessing via Bayesian model averaging (BMA), and ProbForecastGOP, which implements the geostatistical output perturbation (GOP) method. BMA forecasting models use mixture distributions, in which each component corresponds to an ensemble member, and the form of the component distribution depends on the weather parameter (temperature, quantitative precipitation or wind speed). The model parameters are estimated from training data. The GOP technique uses geostatistical methods to produce probabilistic forecasts of entire weather fields for temperature or pressure, based on a single numerical forecast on a spatial grid. Both packages include functions for evaluating predictive performance, in addition to model fitting and forecasting.

CRAN packages: ensembleBMA, chron, fields, maps, ProbForecastGOP, RandomFields, fields
CRAN Task Views implied by cited CRAN packages: Spatial, TimeSeries, Bayesian, SpatioTemporal

  author = {Chris Fraley and Adrian Raftery and Tilmann Gneiting and
          McLean Sloughter and Veronica Berrocal},
  title = {{Probabilistic Weather Forecasting in R}},
  year = {2011},
  journal = {{The R Journal}},
  doi = {10.32614/RJ-2011-009},
  url = {},
  pages = {55--63},
  volume = {3},
  number = {1}