Simulating Probabilistic Long-Term Effects in Models with Temporal Dependence

The R package pltesim calculates and depicts probabilistic long-term effects in binary models with temporal dependence variables. The package performs two tasks. First, it calculates the change in the probability of the event occurring given a change in a theoretical variable. Second, it calculates the rolling difference in the future probability of the event for two scenarios: one where the event occurred at a given time and one where the event does not occur. The package is consistent with the recent movement to depict meaningful and easy-to-interpret quantities of interest with the requisite measures of uncertainty. It is the first to make it easy for researchers to interpret shortand long-term effects of explanatory variables in binary autoregressive models, which can have important implications for the correct interpretation of these models.

Christopher Gandrud , Laron K. Williams
2017-11-22

Supplementary materials

Supplementary materials are available in addition to this article. It can be downloaded at RJ-2017-059.zip

CRAN packages used

pltesim, ggplot2, DAMisc

CRAN Task Views implied by cited packages

Graphics, Phylogenetics

Reuse

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Citation

For attribution, please cite this work as

Gandrud & Williams, "Simulating Probabilistic Long-Term Effects in Models with Temporal Dependence", The R Journal, 2017

BibTeX citation

@article{RJ-2017-059,
  author = {Gandrud, Christopher and Williams, Laron K.},
  title = {Simulating Probabilistic Long-Term Effects in Models with Temporal Dependence},
  journal = {The R Journal},
  year = {2017},
  note = {https://doi.org/10.32614/RJ-2017-059},
  doi = {10.32614/RJ-2017-059},
  volume = {9},
  issue = {2},
  issn = {2073-4859},
  pages = {401-408}
}