Simulating Probabilistic Long-Term Effects in Models with Temporal Dependence
Christopher Gandrud and Laron K. Williams
, The R Journal (2017) 9:2, pages 401-408.
Abstract The R package pltesim calculates and depicts probabilistic long-term effects in binary models with temporal dependence variables. The package performs two tasks. First, it calculates the change in the probability of the event occurring given a change in a theoretical variable. Second, it calculates the rolling difference in the future probability of the event for two scenarios: one where the event occurred at a given time and one where the event does not occur. The package is consistent with the recent movement to depict meaningful and easy-to-interpret quantities of interest with the requisite measures of uncertainty. It is the first to make it easy for researchers to interpret shortand long-term effects of explanatory variables in binary autoregressive models, which can have important implications for the correct interpretation of these models.
Received: 2017-06-29; online 2017-11-22, supplementary material, (1.6 KiB)@article{RJ-2017-059, author = {Christopher Gandrud and Laron K. Williams}, title = {{Simulating Probabilistic Long-Term Effects in Models with Temporal Dependence}}, year = {2017}, journal = {{The R Journal}}, doi = {10.32614/RJ-2017-059}, url = {https://doi.org/10.32614/RJ-2017-059}, pages = {401--408}, volume = {9}, number = {2} }