The R Journal: article published in 2017, volume 9:2

Simulating Probabilistic Long-Term Effects in Models with Temporal Dependence PDF download
Christopher Gandrud and Laron K. Williams , The R Journal (2017) 9:2, pages 401-408.

Abstract The R package pltesim calculates and depicts probabilistic long-term effects in binary models with temporal dependence variables. The package performs two tasks. First, it calculates the change in the probability of the event occurring given a change in a theoretical variable. Second, it calculates the rolling difference in the future probability of the event for two scenarios: one where the event occurred at a given time and one where the event does not occur. The package is consistent with the recent movement to depict meaningful and easy-to-interpret quantities of interest with the requisite measures of uncertainty. It is the first to make it easy for researchers to interpret shortand long-term effects of explanatory variables in binary autoregressive models, which can have important implications for the correct interpretation of these models.

Received: 2017-06-29; online 2017-11-22, supplementary material, (1.6 KiB)
CRAN packages: pltesim, ggplot2, DAMisc
CRAN Task Views implied by cited CRAN packages: Graphics, Phylogenetics

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This article and supplementary materials are licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license.

  author = {Christopher Gandrud and Laron K. Williams},
  title = {{Simulating Probabilistic Long-Term Effects in Models with
          Temporal Dependence}},
  year = {2017},
  journal = {{The R Journal}},
  doi = {10.32614/RJ-2017-059},
  url = {},
  pages = {401--408},
  volume = {9},
  number = {2}